What Awaits Same sex marriage under Trump 2.0?
With Donald Trump soon to be back in the White House, the LGBTQ+ community in the United States finds itself staring down a familiar but deeply unsettling question: could marriage equality be under threat? It’s a nerve-wracking déjà vu, as fears of legal rollbacks and political hostility take centre stage. For a right that has felt secure since Obergefell v. Hodges in 2015, the fragility of progress is suddenly hard to ignore.
A Legal House of Cards?
Let’s not mince words: the legal scaffolding in the United States holding up same-sex marriage is stronger than it was than, say, a decade ago, but cracks could still form under pressure. The Obergefell decision enshrined marriage equality as a constitutional right, and the 2022 Respect for Marriage Act added an extra layer of security by requiring states to recognise same-sex marriages performed elsewhere. Yet, both these measures come with vulnerabilities.
The Respect for Marriage Act, for instance, stops short of requiring all states to perform same-sex marriages. This creates a potential loophole for conservative states to challenge the law, especially with a Supreme Court eager to flex its ideological muscle. And while Obergefell remains the law of the land, it’s no longer unthinkable that a case targeting the decision could make its way to the Court. Justice Clarence Thomas explicitly called for revisiting Obergefell in his concurring opinion during Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the case that overturned Roe v. Wade. If that happens, LGBTQ+ rights advocates worry that the Court’s 6–3 conservative majority might take aim at marriage equality.
The risks here aren’t limited to full-scale reversals, either. Incrementalism is the name of the game for conservative legal movements. Think narrow decisions that carve out religious exemptions, allow state-level refusals to recognise specific unions, or weaken protections in areas like parental rights and adoption. It’s a legal death by a thousand paper cuts, and the consequences could be catastrophic for LGBTQ+ families.
A Chilling Effect on LGBTQ+ Families
Even the perception of instability is enough to send shockwaves through queer households. Across the U.S., same-sex couples are scrambling to adopt their biological children, file for advanced medical directives, and shore up legal protections—just in case. It’s a grim reminder that, for many LGBTQ+ people, stability is never guaranteed, even when laws appear solid on the surface.
This isn’t just a U.S. issue, either. Legal shifts south of the border often ripple outward, influencing political discourse and judicial philosophy in other countries, including Canada. While marriage equality in Canada is protected under Section 15 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, that doesn’t mean that sustained attacks on LGBTQ+ rights in the U.S. wouldn’t embolden right-wingers to try something similar in Canada, also.
Marriage equality isn’t just about weddings and rights—it’s about saying our love and lives are legitimate. Undermining that sends a dangerous message: our dignity is conditional, our equality dispensable.
Marriage Equality: A Symbol of More Than Love
At its core, marriage equality is about far more than legal recognition; it’s about societal legitimacy and equity. Undermining same-sex marriage—either directly or through legislative chipping—sends a dangerous message: LGBTQ+ rights are conditional, dispensable, and subject to the whims of political power. This message dovetails with the wave of anti-LGBTQ+ legislation already sweeping across the United States, targeting everything from trans healthcare to queer representation in schools.
It’s all connected. The erosion of marriage rights wouldn’t happen in a vacuum—it would act as a gateway for broader rollbacks on LGBTQ+ equality. And the stakes are generational. The loss of legal recognition for queer relationships would reverberate through families, schools, workplaces, and communities, amplifying stigma and weakening protections across the board.
What’s Next?
Legal groups like Lambda Legal, the ACLU, and GLBTQ Legal Advocates & Defenders (GLAD) are already on high alert, preparing for what they believe are inevitable challenges. Their focus is on defending the legal frameworks that support marriage equality while pushing for broader protections to safeguard LGBTQ+ rights. Meanwhile, grassroots activism is ramping up, with community organisations mobilising to raise awareness and offer legal resources to LGBTQ+ families.
For Canadians, this is a moment to stay vigilant. Trump’s return to power has the potential to embolden anti-LGBTQ+ movements internationally, including within Canada. Staying informed, amplifying voices under threat, and supporting queer legal advocacy groups are critical steps to ensure equality doesn’t erode on either side of the border.
The Takeaway
Trump may be an American president, but his policies have a way of turning back clocks globally. Same-sex marriage was a hard-won victory, but like all progress, it’s not guaranteed to last. The fight to protect marriage equality—and by extension, the broader LGBTQ+ rights movement—demands both vigilance and action. This is no time for complacency. History has shown us that rights are never safe unless we’re ready to defend them, and the battle for dignity, love, and equality is far from over.
[…] Obergefell v. Hodges—the ruling that legalized same-sex marriage in the U.S.—remains law, its stability is uncertain. Conservative Supreme Court Justices, including Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, have suggested […]